India To Receive Heavy Monsoon Rains in September, Late-Season Boost Brings Relief to Farmers

Indian farmers can breathe a sigh of relief as the chief of the India Meteorological Department announced a surge in monsoon rains during the final stretch of the four-month monsoon season. This welcome news follows an exceptionally dry August, the driest in over a century, which had a detrimental impact on certain summer crops.

The Indian monsoon, often referred to as the backbone of India's $3 trillion economy, supplies nearly 70% of the required rainfall to nourish agricultural fields and replenish vital reservoirs and aquifers.

According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director-general of the India Meteorological Department, "Monsoon rains gained momentum after the 3rd or 4th of this month." This indicates a notable improvement in the performance of the monsoon.

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The positive outlook extends to most rice-growing regions, except for certain areas in the eastern part of the country, which are also expected to receive adequate rainfall.

This boost in monsoon rains comes as a much-needed relief for crops such as corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane, and peanuts, all of which heavily rely on timely and sufficient monsoon rains. Despite starting the season 8% below average on June 1, the monsoon has picked up, being 7% above the average in September.

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The monsoon season had a sluggish start, with June registering 9% below average rainfall. However, it rebounded significantly in July, with rainfall exceeding the average by 13%. The month of August saw erratic rainfall, with the weather office reporting a 36% deficit compared to the average.

The India Meteorological Department defines average or normal rainfall as falling within the range of 96% to 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the entire season.

Current meteorological conditions suggest that the monsoon is not likely to withdraw from the country in the coming days. Mohapatra explained, "We can observe new circulations and low-pressure areas over many parts of the country, so there are no indications of monsoon withdrawal at this stage." He emphasized that the monsoon's retreat is expected to be delayed.

Typically, the Indian monsoon commences in June and begins its retreat by September 17th. El Nino, a weather pattern, contributed to poor rainfall in both June and August. However, an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a dynamic system of wind, cloud, and pressure encircling the equator, played a significant role in bringing abundant rains in July and September.

Mohapatra concluded, "This clearly indicates that El Nino is not the sole factor affecting the monsoon; other regional variations also play substantial roles in influencing its behavior."

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