India Faces Historical Drought Threat as August Rainfall Hits Record Lows: IMD

India is currently grappling with an unprecedented dry spell during August, marking its driest month in over a century, as revealed by officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The scarcity of rainfall, attributed in part to the El Niño weather phenomenon, is anticipated to extend across vast regions, potentially causing significant disruptions to the agricultural sector and leading to an upsurge in food prices and overall inflation.

August's anticipated rainfall is projected to be the lowest since records were first kept in 1901, a historic milestone that raises concerns about the impact on crops that rely on monsoon rains, including rice and soybeans. The surge in food inflation observed in July, reaching its highest level since January 2020, underscores the potential economic consequences of this extraordinary weather pattern.

The monsoon season, critical for India's $ 3 trillion economy, usually contributes nearly 70 per cent of the necessary rainfall for irrigation and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers nationwide. However, this year's monsoon has faltered, which could result in dire consequences for various sectors of the economy.

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A senior official from the IMD remarked that the monsoon hasn't regained strength as initially expected, particularly in the southern, western, and central regions of the country. The official also emphasized the potential impact on crops and water availability.

The present forecast indicates that India might experience less than 180 mm (7 inches) of rainfall for the entire month of August. This prediction is based on the current levels of rainfall and expectations for the remainder of the month. The IMD is slated to announce the official August rainfall totals and the September forecast on August 31 or September 1.

To put the situation into perspective, India has only received about 90.7 mm (3.6 inches) of rainfall in the first 17 days of August, representing a nearly 40 percent deficit compared to the normal average for the month, which is around 254.9 mm (10 inches).

While there might be some improvement in monsoon conditions over the next two weeks in specific regions, the southern and northwestern states are predicted to continue grappling with dry spells. This atypical elongation of the dry spell is largely attributed to the El Niño weather pattern, which has resurfaced in the tropical Pacific after a seven-year hiatus.

This year's monsoon has demonstrated an uneven pattern, with June witnessing a rainfall deficit of 10 per cent below average, followed by a rebound in July with rainfall exceeding average levels by 13 per cent. These monsoon rains are particularly crucial for India's agriculture sector, given that almost half of the country's farmland lacks irrigation facilities.

Farmers, dependent on the monsoon's arrival, typically commence planting essential crops like rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane, and peanuts from June 1, when the monsoon starts in the southern state of Kerala.

The present situation has led experts to call for immediate action, underscoring the criticality of timely and adequate rainfall to safeguard agricultural production and food security in India.

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