FAO Warns of Potential El Nino Effect on India’s Rice, Maize, & Soya Output

While El Nino can significantly lower crop yields in some regions, AMIS suggests that any negative impact could be offset at the global level. They explain that reductions in yields in one region may be balanced by increases in another.

The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) agriculture and market information system (AMIS) reports that predicting the effects of El Nino is difficult since each event varies in strength, duration, and localized mitigation. Based on historical data, some crops and regions are likely to be impacted, such as rice production across Southeast Asia and India, as well as maize and soybean productivity in various regions, including Indonesia, West Africa, and southern Africa.

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), supported by the FAO's weather arm, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), has issued an alert about the southwest monsoon. They suggest that it could experience normal to below-normal rainfall over most parts of South Asia, but at this point, there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Nino.

While El Nino can significantly lower crop yields in some regions, AMIS suggests that any negative impact could be offset at the global level. They explain that reductions in yields in one region may be balanced by increases in another. AMIS plans to monitor El Nino closely over the next few months to determine its possible impact on global agriculture.

On a positive note, maize and soybean production may increase in the Midwest US and Southeast South America, and wheat yields may rise in various regions such as the US southern Great Plains, China, Central Asia, and Southeast South America. According to the FAO arm, El Nino may increase global temperatures and have opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions worldwide, compared to the long-running La Nina.

The WMO suggests that the likelihood of El Nino developing later this year is increasing. They indicate that this would have opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions worldwide compared to La Nina and may lead to average to above-average rains in some areas, while other regions may experience drier-than-average conditions. The WMO Secretary-General warns that El Nino will likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records.

source-Business Line

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