El Nino Expected to Impact Monsoon Season, IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall in August

As the monsoon season progresses, India faces uncertainty as the feared El Nino phenomenon looms on the horizon, potentially impacting the rainfall patterns. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised concerns over the development of a moderate El Nino, which could disrupt the current surplus monsoon season, characterized by inconsistent distribution.

According to the IMD's latest forecast, monsoon rainfall during the second half of the season, particularly in August, is expected to be on the lower side of the "normal" category, ranging from 90% to 99% of the long-period average (LPA) based on data from 1971 to 2020. The situation is further complicated by below-normal rainfall anticipated during August, which may be compensated by higher rainfall in September.

Mr. M Mohapatra, director-general of IMD, emphasized the significance of the El Nino and its potential impact on the monsoon. The weather phenomenon is characterized by an unusual warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific waters, often leading to warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India. In contrast, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is favourable for the southwest monsoon, as it relates to temperature differences between the western and eastern Indian Oceans.

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Notably, since the monsoon's onset on June 1, India has experienced a 5% excess rainfall overall, with variations across different regions. The northwest region has seen a 31% excess, while central India recorded a 12% surplus. In contrast, peninsular India saw only a 5% excess and east and northeast India experienced a concerning 25% rainfall deficiency.

July witnessed extreme rainfall events across the country, with heavy and exceptionally heavy rain recorded in various areas. Notable instances include Chandigarh, Sutrapada in Saurashtra, Laxmidevipeta in Telangana, and Raigad in Konkan, which saw substantial rainfall.

The IMD's presentation also highlighted a worrisome trend of rising mean and minimum temperatures across the country since the 1990s. Climate experts view this as a possible indication of the impacts of climate change.

Considering the potential challenges posed by the growing El Nino threat and the uncertainties surrounding monsoon rainfall in August, authorities and farmers are advised to closely monitor the situation. Water resources, agriculture, and livelihoods in affected regions could be impacted, necessitating preparedness measures.

As the monsoon season progresses, further updates and detailed forecasts from the IMD will play a crucial role in understanding and adapting to the changing weather patterns. In light of the recent major deficiency of rainfall in key agricultural areas, vigilance and proactive measures are essential to mitigate potential adverse effects on crop yields and overall water management.

With August underway, India remains on alert as it navigates the delicate balance between weather patterns and their implications for the nation's welfare.

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